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Article Published In Vol.3 (Jan-Feb-2015)

Extreme Value Analysis to Determine the Probable Maximum Wind Speed at Mersa Matruh Coastal Area

Author : M. A. Sadek and O.S. Ahmed

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A daily midnight value of wind speed at Mersa Matruh coastal area has been collected for 30 years , from 1980 to 2012. The maximum yearly wind speed values have been determined and used for the extreme analysis, using the extreme value distribution type 1 (EV1) which is commonly known as Gumbel’s distribution . The graphical approach and parametric analytical one have been used for fitting the distribution of empirical data to the mathematical equation of the theoretical function, to make predictions beyond the period of observation. A quite good match exists between the results of graphical and parametric approaches. The equations of the best fit trend lines may express an identity to the study area, in a way to be used confidently for prediction purposes. The extreme wind speed that can affect Mersa Matruh coastal area , while having a probability of non exceedence in a given year, equals 2%, 1%, 0.05%, 0.002% or 0.001, has been determined. For safety considerations the structures which are exposed to wind are designed to withstand the effect of the extreme wind speed of appropriate exceedence probability. The exceedence probability for which the Probable Maximum Wind Speed (PMWS) values have been determined in this work, are chosen to cover a wide range of structure criticality design basis.

Keywords: Gumbel’s Distribution Function, Maximum Wind Speed, Method of Moment, Graphical, Analytical Parametric Approach, Mersa Matruh




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